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Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419689
We consider the robust stability of a rational expectations equilibrium, which we define as stability under discounted (constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We find that for operational forms of policy rules, ie rules that do not depend on contemporaneous values...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648984
We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja, European Economic Review (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496440
This paper shows that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition can continue to hold when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. In temporary equilibrium, with given expectations, Ricardian Equivalence holds under the standard conditions for its validity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516097
The authors analyze the expectational stability (E-stability) of the different solutions of a linear rational expectations model in which the endogenous variable depends on expectations of its current and future values, formed in the past, and also on its own lagged value. It is shown that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005230602
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005231409
Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008918570
A striking implication of the replacement of adaptive expectations by Rational Expectations was the "Lucas Critique," which showed that expectation parameters, and endogenous variable dynamics, depend on policy parameters. We reconsider this issue from the vantage point of bounded rationality....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010817539
Quarterly measures of U.K. labor market sectoral imbalance are computed using industrial and regional data. Cyclically corrected measures are used to examine the extent to which changes in sectoral imbalance affect the position of the unemployment-vacancy rule curve. The substantial increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005035273
The U.S. dollar price of the U.K. pound sterling is tested for a speculative bubble, defined as a period with a nonzero median in excessreturns. A nonparametric procedure is developed, which controls for data mining over the period of flexible exchange rates, and finds a negative bubble in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005571724