We use the returns on a set of international financial securities to identify exogenous shocks to the Canadian federal surplus. We find that a large portion of the variation in the surplus can be replicated by a linear combination of these returns and that the rising debt observed in the 1980s...

We develop an endogenous growth model in which new technology and new skills are bounded complements -- they complement each other to a point, but beyond this the impact of each factor is constrained by the level of the other. As a result, both technological progress and human capital...

We show how a Schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational, herd-behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors of the economy that may look like it is fuelled by ``animal spirits''. Consequently, a multi-sector economy, in which sector-specific, productivity improvements...

We explore the implications of endogenous credit market imperfections for the relationship between property crime and the process of economic development. In the initial stages of development, property crime rises as the opportunities to gain from illegal activities expand. In later stages,...

The return to "sound" fiscal policy after the high budget deficits of the 1980s and early 1990s has been hailed by many as the Clinton administration's most important achievement. We evaluate post-war, U.S. fiscal policy using a generalized tax-smoothing model that allows for stochastic interest...

In this article we argue that the evaluation and implementation of Canadian fiscal policy could be significantly improved through the systematic use of information provided by global financial markets. In particular, we show how the information contained in internationally traded asset returns...

A framework is developed in which the formation of gangs --- the criminal market structure --- is endogenous. We examine the impact of crime deterrence in this framework. It is shown that for a given gang structure, an increase in deterrence reduces criminal output. However, under identifiable...

Empirical studies reveal that monetary policy shocks generate long-lasting effects on real GDP, countercyclical real wages before World War II and procyclical real wages afterwards. In this paper, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to explain the observed output persistence and the...

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. This paper extends previous work by introducing multiple sectors and traded intermediate inputs. Trade in intermediate goods represents approximately 60% of...