A small but growing body of literature searches for evidence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short-run economic activity. This article continues that research effort by systematically examining the effects...

Conventional wisdom suggests that higher government fiscal deficits cause higher (long-term) interest rates. Much empirical work-generally standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis-has examined this issue and has produced mixed findings. Even if these standard OLS studies...

The emergence of record current-account and fiscal deficits in the United States during the 1980s draws increasing attention to what has become known as the "twin deficit" problem. Conventional wisdom is that a shift to larger government deficits entails a decline in government saving and...

A small, but growing, body of literature searches for evidence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short-run economic activity. Our paper continues this research effort by systematically examining the effects, if...

State and local governments have recently experienced severe budget problems. Many state legislatures and governors have cut spending or raised taxes. Such changes in fiscal structure may restore fiscal balance, but they can have adverse consequences on state and local economic growth. This...

A large and growing literature searches for the determinants of economic growth, using cross-country regressions. Within this literature, one branch considers the effect of various fiscal policy variables on the growth process. Our paper continues this research effort by systematically examining...

This paper reviews competing views regarding interest rates and other economic effects of federal deficits. It discusses the findings of several empirical studies that have analyzed these relationships. The main points ofthe paper are that: (a) the con-cept of the deficit is ambiguous because...

This paper examines empirically two facets of labor force participation dynamics that imply quite different interpretations of labor market fluctuations. The first, which underlies equilibrium business cycle models, is that workers time their participation to coincide with periods of high real...

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...