This paper documents the structure and key properties of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy. It is a three-good, small open economy model, which features a well-developed production block. This production block has been estimated as a system using Full...

The composition of the New Zealand workforce has changed considerably over the past two decades. Qualification levels have risen, labour force participation has trended upwards for women, immigrants have increasingly been sourced from Asia, and the large baby-boom cohort has contributed to an...

This paper estimates the non-increasing inflation rate of unemployment or NAIRU for New Zealand. A NAIRU that varies over time has important implications in considering inflationary pressures. This paper estimates the time-varying NAIRU using a Kalman filter on a reduced form approach and...

Using the capital stock series recently released by Statistics New Zealand, two approaches have been employed to estimate a production function. The first approach is based on the estimation of a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function with a value added form. The second...

The Treasury is the New Zealand government’s lead advisor on economic and financial issues. Part of this advice consists of providing the government with forecasts of economic and fiscal variables. Economic forecasts are important, not only as a basis for forecasts of tax revenue, but also in...

The Treasury has been testing the assumptions on the potential growth rate of the New Zealand economy. In this paper, we estimate a small macro model using Bayesian techniques, which allows us to assess the level of uncertainty of the estimates of the output gap. The model is based on the work...

Sustainable development is a multifaceted concept that has drawn on a number of disciplines including economics, ecology, ethics, sociology and political science. Sustainable development links the welfare of generations with the capacity of the biosphere to sustain life and has a policy focus....

Concern has been raised by an apparent lack of saving in New Zealand. It is often argued that policies which foster savings are important, as higher savings will contribute to higher economic growth. This paper investigates the link between saving, investment and growth. In particular, it...

Expected geometric return is routinely reported as a summary measure of the prospective performance of asset classes and investment portfolios. It has intuitive appeal because its historical counterpart, the geometric average, provides a useful annualised measure of the proportional change in...

Effective tax rates (rather than statutory tax rates) on capital assets can give us an idea of the level of distortion imposed on investment by the tax system. This paper describes a study of effective tax rates on different types of capital assets in New Zealand using the King-Fullerton...