Economic models of politics typically use the expected value of a candidate's vote share to proxy electoral probability. In this paper, the authors introduce a risk calculation to augment the evaluation of a candidate's (or party's) expected vote share and they divide this risk element into its...

The authors use extreme-bounds analysis to assess the sensitivity of numerous control variables identified in the state growth literature. They employ annual panel data on the American states to identify which variables are robust to small changes in the conditioning information set. The results...