Low oil prices and rising oil imports have caused growing concern about U.S. vulnerability to oil-supply shocks. Mine K. Yucel and Carol Dahl devise a measure of vulnerability and use it to compare three policies that have been proposed to reduce U.S. vulnerability to oil-supply disruptions: a...

This paper investigates the relationship between energy-price shocks and three core measures of inflation in a vector autoregression model that incorporates measures of monetary policy and inflation expectations. The sample set includes data at monthly frequencies from 1980 through 2000. The...

It's not the latest jump in oil prices that takes a toll on the economy but the uncertainty over what will happen in the future. But getting a handle on such uncertainty is a difficult task.

The relationship between oil price shocks and U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations advocated by Hamilton (1983) broke down in the 1980s amidst a new regime of highly volatile oil price movements. Several authors have argued that asymmetric and nonlinear transformations of oil prices restore that...

As if to affirm that "History repeats itself," the third oil shock in seventeen years has been threatening. But history never repeats itself exactly, and important differences exist between this incipient oil shock and the previous two, including differences in the likely magnitude of the shock,...