This paper provides new evidence on the determinants of foreign currency sovereign ratings. It examines the systematic differences between credit rating agencies regarding both the factors included in the sovereign rating process and the weightings attached to these factors, as well as the...

We examine the statistical determinants of transfer risk using probit estimation and an estensive data set of over 300 sovereign ratings given by the leading rating agencies between 1992-1997.

This paper presents the first systematic analysis of the determinants of local currency sovereign ratings and uses ordered probit estimation. We find no signifiant quantitative impact for the best theoretical indicators of local currency creditworthiness, the fiscal balance and the rate of...

This article analyses the properties of five major macroeconometric models of the UK economy in the light of the current debate over the setting of monetary and fiscal policy instruments. The broad objectives of current policy—sound public finances and low inflation—are reflected...

This article describes the current versions of six major macroeconometric models, and analyses their overall properties as revealed in standard simulation experiments. Particular attention is given to a policy issue of long-standing importance, namely the control of the size of the government...

We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960-2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the...