The paper suggests a nonlinear and multivariate time series model framework that enables the study of simultaneity in returns and in volatilities, as well as asymmetric effects arising from shocks and an outside stock exchange. Using daily data 2000-2006 for the Baltic state stock exchanges and...

In this note we study whether simple technical trading rules are profitable on the three Baltic stock markets. To statistically assess our findings we consider the conventional t-test and a block-bootstrap procedure. The two evaluation methods give conflicting results. The t-test supports some...

This paper studies the link between political news releases, and the returns and volatilities in the stock markets of Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius. Political news releases are viewed as proxies for political risk. The results indicate that political news events regarding domestic and foreign,...

This thesis consists of five self-contained papers, which are all related to the financial markets in the three Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Paper [I] studies the impact of news from the Moscow and New York stock exchanges on the returns and volatilities of the Baltic States'...

The hypothesis that financial development promotes economic growth is largely supported by empirical studies. This hypothesis is tested for the three Baltic countries using a time series approach that allows for interactions between the three countries. We find that economic growth is a positive...

In this paper we study the impact of market jumps on the time varying return correlations between stock market indices in the Baltic countries. An EARJI-EGARCH model facilitating direct modelling of the time varying return correlations is introduced. The empirical results indicate that there is...

We argue that the practise of valuing the portfolio is important for the calculation of the V aR. In particular, the seller (buyer) of an asset does not face horizontal demand (supply) curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the V aR and in an empirical...

Estimation in nonlinear time series models has mainly been performed by least squares or maximum likelihood (ML) methods. The paper suggests and studies the performance of generalized method of moments (GMM) and indirect estimators for the autoregressive asymmetric moving average model. Both...

The paper studies two approaches to modelling conditional skewness in a nonlinear model for stock returns. It is found that a normal distribution can be rejected. A log-generalized gamma distribution with one time-varying density parameter, and in particular a Pearson IV specification with three...

The paper studies Swedish stock series using extreme-value theoretical approaches. In a univariate setting support is found for the Fréchet family of distributions for minima and maxima. Pairs of return series are found to be asymptotically independent throughout. The results render support for...