There is now considerable evidence that business cycle variation in output and employment in the U.S. differs in expansions and contractions. We present nonparametric evidence that asymmetries are strongest in durable goods manufacturing. In a Markov switching framework, we find two leading...

The Enron Corporation went from a $65 billion dollar market capitalization to bankruptcy in just 16 months. Using statistical techniques for extracting the implied probability distributions built into option prices, I examine the market’s expectation of Enron’s risk of collapse. I find that...

This paper is the first to characterize the tatonnement of high-frequency returns from U.S. Treasury spot and futures markets. In particular, we highlight the previously neglected role of the futures markets in price discovery. The lower-bound estimate of bivariate information shares for 30-year...

This article reviews the history of the recent shift to electronic trading in equity, foreign exchange, and fixed-income markets. The authors analyze a new data set: the eSpeed electronic Treasury network. They contrast the market microstructure of the eSpeed trading platform with the...

This paper assesses the microstructure of the U.S. Treasury securities market, using newly available tick data from the BrokerTec electronic trading platform. Examining trading activity, bid-ask spreads, and depth for on-the-run two-,three-, five-, ten-, and thirty-year Treasury securities, we...

This article is the first to rigorously test how skyscraper height and output co-move. Because builders can use their buildings for nonrational or nonpecuniary gains, it is widely believed that height competition occurs near the business cycle peaks. This would suggest that extreme building...

This paper analyzes the market microstructure of the European Climate Exchange, the largest EU ETS trading venue. The ECX captures 2/3 of the screen traded market in EUA and more than 90% in CER. 2009 Trading volumes total ?22 billion and are growing, with EUA transactions doubling, and CER...

This paper analyzes the market microstructure of the European Climate Exchange, the largest EU ETS trading venue. The ECX captures 2/3 of the screen traded market in EUA and more than 90% in CER. 2009 Trading volumes total ?22 billion and are growing, with EUA transactions doubling, and CER...