This paper estimates potential GDP growth and output gaps for the period 1986-2007 using three different methodologies: (i) production function, (ii) Kalman filter proxy (univariate and multivariate) and (iii) structural VAR . The output gap estimates show a high degree of mutual consistency....

To estimate the neutral real interest rate for Chile, we use a variety of methods that can be classified into three categories: those derived from economic theory, the neutral rate implicit in financial assets, and statistical procedures using macroeconomic data. We conclude that the neutral...

The aim of this work is to elaborate a variety of indexes of economic activity tendency from the original disaggregated series that compose the monthly index of economic activity, Imacec. Following similar statistical techniques to the ones used to elaborate core inflation series, it is hoped...

This paper describes the main tools used to analyze the exchange rate in the process of conducting and analyzing the macroeconomic policies of the Chilean Central Bank (CCB). In doing so, we first describe the main methodologies used to construct real exchange rate (RER) indices, and corroborate...

This paper offers stochastic projections of the Central Bank of Chile’s balance sheet (stocks and flows), grounded on its present deficit situation. These projections incorporate the effect on the balance sheet of some macroeconomic variables and alternative policies, taking into consideration...

Central banks must make policy decisions in the face of uncertainty based on imperfect and evolving knowledge about the economy. While few general results have emerged from the research on monetary policy in the face of uncertainty and learning, a key lesson is that neither uncertainty nor...

This brief review takes stock of the recent literature on monetary policy under inflation targeting and introduces new analytical and empirical research in this field. Six key areas of previous research are reviewed: the practice and optimality of inflation targeting regime features; optimal...

The choice between maintaining or giving up the national currency is determined by putting on balance the benefits of macroeconomic flexibility derived from a floating exchange rate and an independent monetary policy, and the microeconomic benefits derived from joining a currency union or...