This paper utilises the partial adjustment approach of Judd and Rudebusch (1998) to empirically estimate the degree of short-term interest rate smoothing by central banks in the dollar block countries. All countries appear to smooth short-term interest rates significantly, with New Zealand and...

This paper considers the effect of currency union on exchange rate volatility. At a theoretical level, a simple framework is developed for thinking about volatility and exchange rate arrangements and some inferences are drawn from it. Empirically, the interaction between currency areas and...

The output gap plays a crucial role in thinking and actions of many central banks but real time measurements undergo substantial revisions as more data become available (Orphanides (2001), Orphanides and van Norden (forthcoming)). Some central banks augment, such as the Bank of Canada and the...

Fundamental economic factors—market demand and supply conditions—provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall of commodity prices on a monthly basis can be strongly linked to the value...

In December 2000, the Reserve Bank issued a discussion paper entitled "Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries," written by Aaron Drew and L Christopher Plantier. The key points made are summarised in this paper.

The Taylor rule is a simple formula devised to mimic the United States Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and is thought to perform well in the United States. It is based on relationships between the output gap, neutral real interest rates and the extent to which actual inflation has...

This note revisits the proof of the steady-state growth theorem, first given by Uzawa in 1961.We provide a clear statement of the theorem, discuss intuition for why it holds, and present a new, elegant proof due to Schlicht (2006). Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and...

The rise and fall of inflation during the Great Inflation were events of approximately equal duration in developed economies. Relying on data-driven methods, this paper shows the American experience, in which inflation fell more quickly than it rose, was anomalous. This suggests that theories...

In this article we summarise the recent economic literature on the relationship between inflation and growth, to assess what inflation target might be most consistent with the fastest pace of sustainable economic growth. One conclusion is that the relationship between inflation and growth seems...

This brief note revisits the proof of the Steady-State Growth Theorem, first provided by Uzawa (1961). We provide a clear statement of the theorem and a new version of Uzawa's proof that makes the intuition underlying the result more apparent.