Income per capita of Hungary attained 70 percent of the Austrian level by the end of the eighteenth century and fluctuated around this value between the World Wars. As an „achievement” of the last 50 years this ratio — measured at purchasing power parity — has decreased to about 40...

The model is an application of the precautionary consumer saving model to the external debt policy of a small open economy. Let us assume that the welfare criterion of macroeconomic policy is the utility function of a representative infinitely living dynasty. This approach is in line with the...

This paper provides a statistical analysis of the components of real exchange rate in Hungary for the period 1991-1996. The real exchange rate is decomposed into a tradable and a nontradable rate. The following main conclusions are valid: 1. The Balassa-Samuelson effect, which presumes a real...

CEE countries experience a catching up period in economic growth while preparing for accession to the European Union. In several countries we experience an expenditure boom arising either from exuberant expectations of consumers towards EU or EM or a fiscal deficit usually underpinned by an...

A magyar gazdaság a háború előtt évtizedekig, sőt már a századfordulón is az ausztriai egy lakosra számított szintnek mintegy 70 százalékán teljesített. Az utóbbi 50 év eredményeképpen" ez az arány vásárlőerő-paritáson mérve 40 százalék körülire esett. A...

Nyitott gazdaságokban az aggregált többletkereslet sokszor nem a munkanélküliség változásában csapódik le a Phillips-görbével leírt módon, hanem a külkereskedelmi deficitben. Az ebből adódó inflációs nyomás ekkor a valutaárfolyam gyengülésében és ennek az árakba...

In the past three decades several countries of the world have experienced fast and large real exchange rate appreciation, similarly to the recent Hungarian experience. This paper studies macroeconomic policies and outcomes during and after large real exchange rate appreciations. The two main...

This paper reviews the contagion effects of the global financial crises of 1997-99 on five small open economies: the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Israel and Poland. We analyze how the financial markets of these countries were effected under different exchange rate regimes. We look at the...

Potential output figures are important ingredients of many macroeconomic models and are routinely applied by policy makers and global agencies. Despite its widespread use, estimation of potential output is at best uncertain and depends heavily on the model. The task of estimating potential...

It is generally recognized that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyze the synchronization of business cycles between the EMU and eight new EU...