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We analyze the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy. We estimate a Markov switching VAR for the euro area and the US, including additionally GDP, CPI and a short-term interest rate. We find evidence for two distinct states in both regions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530956
The purpose of this paper is to model both loans to households and to non-financial corporations as well as their relation to interest rates and demand variables for Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Credit aggregates are modeled using a Markov-switching vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727709
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010935636
Theoretical models of the role of credit in business cycles and of the transmission mechanism have largely concluded that, given capital market imperfections, credit conditions may amplify and propagate the effect of shocks in the economy. This paper compares the behavior of loans to households...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005802582
The purpose of this paper is to model both loans to households and to non-financial corporations as well as their relation to interest rates and demand variables for Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Credit aggregates are modeled using a Markov-switching vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005273262
We analyse the interaction between credit and asset prices in the transmission of shocks to the real economy using a Markov switching vector autoregression. While we confirm the existence of different regimes, we find no evidence of financial imbalances coming from mutually reinforcing effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011269368
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve, as a structural model of inflation dynamics, has mostly been used to explain past inflation developments, but has hardly been used for forecasting purposes. We propose a method of forecasting inflation based on the present-value formulation of the hybrid New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727670
Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has changed the monetary policy regime applicable in Austria in many respects, but the stability orientation of Austria's monetary policy has been maintained. EMU's institutional framework and the actual monetary policymaking of the Eurosystem have secured...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727671
Using individual firm data, this study analyzes the credit channel in Austria. The estimation is based on an accelerator specification of investment demand augmented by the liquidity ratio and a firm specific user cost of capital. The results show that there is a credit channel in Austria...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010727754