This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard...

We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is,...

La relación entre la teoría y la políticaeconómica con la práctica y el modelamientoempírico cada día cobra másimportancia. El economista en susinvestigaciones teóricas y/o empíricasante todo debe clarificar y delimitar elcontexto específico de análisis en elcampo teórico económico...

In this paper we asses the ability of alternative time series models to produce accurate fiscal revenue forecasts in a transition country and compare them to offi cial forecast. We take on a disaggregated approach and estimate separate models for seven revenue sources. Alternative time series...