We use daily returns to compare the performance predictability of Bayesian estimates of mutual fund performance with standard frequentist measures. When the returns on passive nonbenchmark assets are correlated with fund holdings, incorporating histories of these returns produces a performance...

Using a comprehensive database of American prisoners of war during World War II, we find that survival from captivity generally declines as the hierarchy of a prisoner's group becomes steeper or more closely matches the military's established hierarchy. There is no evidence that survival is...

Share issuance predicts cross-sectional returns in a non-U.S. sample of stocks from 41 different countries. Issuance predictability has greater statistical significance than either size or momentum, and is similar to book-to-market. As in the U.S., the international issuance effect is robust...

If investors are rational, the variance of closed-end mutual fund returns should equal the variance of the underlying securities in their portfolios. In fact, this paper shows that the average closed-end fund's monthly return is 64 percent more volatile than its assets. Unlike variance-bounds...

Arbitrage costs lead to large deviations of prices from fundamentals. Using a sample of closed-end funds, I find that the market value of a fund is more likely to deviate from the value of its assets ( 1) for funds with portfolios that are difficult to replicate, (2) for funds that pay out...