We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the DJIA from 1897 to 2008. We use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it selects more outperforming rules and di- versies...

We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from 1897 to 2011, and we use the false discovery rate (FDR) as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it selects more...

We prove that it eliminates asymptotically all spurious detections. Monte Carlo results show that it performs also well in nite samples. In Dow Jones stocks, spurious detections represent up to 50% of the jumps detected initially between 2006 and 2008. For the majority of stocks, jumps do not...

We analyze the modifications that occur in indirect inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. We develop a testing procedure adapted to this simulation-based estimation method, and detail its use for detecting the threshold effect in threshold moving...

We develop a test of equality between two dependence structures estimated through empirical copulas. We provide inference for independent or paired samples. The multiplier central limit theorem is used for calculating p-values of the Cram´er-von Mises test statistic. Finite sample properties...

This paper develops a simple technique that controls for false discoveries, or mutual funds that exhibit significant alphas by luck alone. Our approach precisely separates funds into (1) unskilled, (2) zero-alpha, and (3) skilled funds, even with dependencies in cross-fund estimated alphas. We...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the asset allocation problem for a pension fund which maximizes the expected present value of its wealth augmented by the prospective mathematical reserve at the death time of a representative member. Design/methodology/approach - The paper...

In this note we propose a general testing procedure for parametric models based on Bartlett Identities. A well-know example is the Information Matrix test, which is based on the Bartlett Identity of order 1. The Identities are shown to induce a sequence of testable restrictions on the data...

Two extensions of a parametric model are proposed, each one involving the score function of an alternative parametric model. We show that the encompassing hypothesis is equivalent to standard conditions on the score of each of the extended models. The condition on the first extension gives rise...

A factor analysis of returns of shares traded on the Brussels Stock Exchange reveals that the first dominant factor is highly correlated with the popular Bel-20 index and that a distinctive alternative trend is represented by the market's second factor. We propose a new stock index consisting of...