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We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a significant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% p.a. between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional risk factors,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083372
We show that global asset reallocations of U.S. fund investors obey a strong factor structure, with two factors accounting for more than 90% of the overall variation. The first factor captures switches between U.S. bonds and equities. The second reflects reallocations from U.S. to international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011210511
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010826734
A sizeable literature reports that financial market analysts and forecasters herd for reputational reasons. Using new data from a large survey of professional forecasters' expectations about stock market movements, we find strong evidence that the expected average of all forecasters' forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005027063
We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677986
We investigate the relation between global FX volatility and the excess returns to carry trade portfolios. We find a significantly negative return co-movement of high interest rate currencies with global volatility, whereas low interest rate currencies provide a hedge against volatility shocks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836150
Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509119
We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509461
What drives volatility on financial markets? This paper takes a comprehensive look at the predictability of financial market volatility by macroeconomic and financial variables. We go beyond forecasting stock market volatility (by large the focus in previous studies) and additionally investigate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008534434
We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a significant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% per annum (p.a.) between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010587981