This paper explores the differences in observed risk propensity among petroleum firms and their impact on firm performance. In this work, we (1) develop a decision theoretic model which measures a firm's risk propensity in the form of an "implied" utility function; (2) investigate changes in...

Stochastic process models of commodity prices are important inputs in energy investment evaluation and planning problems. In this paper, we focus on modeling and forecasting the long-term price level, since it is the dominant factor in many such applications. To provide a foundation for our...

This paper describes the development of an index to evaluate the potential hazard associated with the presence of asbestos in friable insulating material in a building and to recommend the appropriate action to take based on this assessment. The hazard index is determined by the number of...

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is flawed as a procedure for ranking alternatives in that the rankings produced by this procedure are arbitrary. This paper provides a brief review of several areas of operational difficulty with the AHP, and then focuses on the arbitrary rankings that occur...