We improve upon the power of the statistical arbitrage test in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004). Our methodology also allows for the evaluation of return anomalies under weaker assumptions. We then compare strategies based on their convergence rates to arbitrage and identify strategies...

This paper develops robust tests of market efficiency using statistical arbitrage which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma confounding the traditional literature. Hogan, Jarrow, Teo and Warachka (2004) identify statistical arbitrage opportunities in momentum and value strategies. However,...

We find that lottery tax windfalls finance higher state-government expenditures on supplemental security income that increase consumption, but only during bust periods. Wealth transfers from lottery winners to low income households enable fiscal policy to stabilize consumption during bust periods.

The gambler's fallacy [Rabin, M. 2002. Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. <i>Quart. J. Econom.</i> <b>117</b>(3) 775-816] predicts that trends bias investor expectations. Consistent with this prediction, we find that investors underreact to streaks of consecutive earnings surprises with the...

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades...

This paper implements the Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to analyze irregularly spaced transaction data of trade direction, namely buy versus sell orders. We examine the influence of lagged transaction duration, lagged volume and lagged...

We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell)....

A quantum field theory generalization, Baaquie, of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (HJM) term structure model parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. Field theory also offers powerful computational tools to compute path integrals which naturally arise from...