There is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news. This article considers the impact of asymmetry on time-varying hedges for financial futures. An asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to...

Recent research has suggested that forecast evaluation on the basis of standard statistical loss functions could prefer models which are sub-optimal when used in a practical setting. This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily volatility of several key UK...

Many popular techniques for determining a securities firm’s value at risk are based upon the calculation of the historical volatility of returns to the assets that comprise the portfolio, and of the correlations between them. One such approach is the J.P. Morgan RiskMetrics methodology using...

This paper proposes a new model for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and kurtosis. Via a time-varying degrees of freedom parameter, the conditional variance and conditional kurtosis are permitted to evolve separately. The model uses only the standard Student’s t density and...

A large number of important practical tasks can be accomplished using a multivariate GARCH model. This paper examines the relatively small number of software packages that are currently available for estimating such models, in spite of their widespread use. The review focuses upon estimation...

This paper investigates the frequency of extreme events for three LIFFE futures contracts for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a semi-parametric approach where the tails are modelled by the Generalised Pareto Distribution and smaller risks are captured by...

This paper examines the evidence for a day-of-the-week effect in five Southeast Asian stock markets: South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand. Findings indicate significant seasonality for three of the five markets. Market risk, proxied by the return on the FTA World Price...