We apply a random-coefficient framework to deal with two problems frequently encountered in applied work. First, we use a real-world relationship to derive a sub-relationship among fewer variables without introducing any specification error to correct misspecifications in a small area level...

This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro- econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the...

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation and GDP shocks between the UK and the three major European EMU countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these four...

This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro- econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the...