In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from...

This paper focuses on the seasonal predictability of stock market returns. we investigate the statistical significance of predicting stock returns from several calendar dummies. Our main findings, using monthly stock market returns from Belgium. Germany, the Netherlands, UK and US, are that the...

Water management steers a middle course between control and chaos. The concept of control in water management is the topic of this paper. Conditions for control in water management are: aconsistent policy, gaining support and an adequate informationsupply. It is demonstrated that the balance...