This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it...

This paper develops a model of a representative transition economy to explain the stylised facts of output declines and real exchange rate appreciation in the early stages of transformation. These facts can be explained by supply-side shocks, interest rate liberalisation or a reduction in core...

This paper aims at evaluating the performance of the so called ?hard currency policy? as an anti-inflationary weapon. The analysis takes place in the context of the Greek economy on the basis of a five-equation model including the behaviour of wages, import and export prices, the consumer price...

This article examines the contribution of exchange rate policy to output growth in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis identifies two major channels through which the exchange rate affects output. The first is the direct effect which operates on output through...

This paper examines the extent to which the demand for money in the euro area responds to external economic developments. The euro area money demand is derived from a two-country portfolio balance framework with the US being the foreign economy, using quarterly data covering the 1990Q1–2006Q2...

This paper empirically determines the main factors influencing trade flows between the European Union and the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis relies on the estimation of gravity-type equations for both exports and imports. Besides the basic variables that are...

The aim of this paper is to study the main macroeconomic, financial and structural characteristics that affected current account developments in the member-states of the euro area over the period 1980–2008. The model is based on the intertemporal consumption smoothing approach according to...