This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980-1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by...

A number of authors have found significant cointegrating relationships between spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels for the major currencies where the magnitude of the coefficients makes economic interpretation of PPP cumbersome. Using theoretically well motivated nonlinear...

This paper adopts a nonlinear framework to model the deviations of the real exchange rate from its fundamental value implied by International Real Business Cycle models with complete asset markets. By focusing on the post Bretton Woods era, we find that in several cases there is a long run...

After a prolonged period characterized by rapid real appreciation in house prices, there is now broad recognition of the severe correction in housing markets that followed as one of the causes of the 2008-09 global recession. We investigate the time series characteristics of three relevant price...

This paper revisits the corner solution in classical portfolio choice theory in which risk-averse agents would all be optimally plungers rather than diversifiers. We examine the effect of higher-order moments of two-, three- and four-parameter density functions on the investor's decision to...

The probabilistic structure of periodically collapsing bubbles implies different values for the slope coefficient of alternative efficient market hypothesis tests depending on whether the bubble is in an explosive regime or not. We exploit this fact and propose a new method for bubble...

The detection of explosive behavior in house prices and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of great importance for policy-making. This paper applies the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2012) and Phillips et al. (2013), a novel procedure for testing, detection and...

Growth models under uncertainty and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility are fragile in explaining consumers’ choice, as equilibrium consumption is dependent on distributional assumptions. We show that, under semi-nonparametric distributions, general equilibrium models are stable, as...

Recent research has reported the lack of correct size in stationarity test for PPP deviations within a linear framework. However, theoretically well motivated non-linear models, such as the ESTAR, appear to parsimoniously fit the PPP data and provide an explanation for the PPP 'puzzle'....