This paper uses binary classification trees (BCTs) to predict capital account crises. BCTs successively compare candidate variables and thresholds to split the data into two subsamples, allowing for a large number of indicators to be considered and complex interactions to emerge in a way that...

This Paper presents firm level evidence on the dynamics of non-manual wage premia and employment shares in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of aggregate wage premia and employment shares hides offsetting disaggregate forces. First, while technical...

This paper employs a recent statistical algorithm (CRAGGING) in order to build an early warning model for banking crises in emerging markets. We perturb our data set many times and create “artificial” samples from which we estimated our model, so that, by construction, it is flexible enough...

Employees of globalized firms face a more uncertain stream of earnings and riskier employment prospects. However, they also have stronger incentives to train and upgrade their skills and benefit from more rapid careers. Hence, the costs of uncertainty and the benefits of skill upgrading...

This paper investigates the economic and political conditions that are associated to the occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Classification and Regression Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical...

Employees of "globalized" firms face a riskier, but potentially more rewarding, menu of labor market outcomes. We document this neglected trade-off of globalization for a sample of Indian manufacturing firms. On the one hand, the employees of firms subject to foreign competition face a more...

This paper presents firm-level evidence on the dynamics of the relative demand for non-manufacturing workers in Italian manufacturing during the 1990s. The analysis provides a number of interesting results. First, the rise within firms in the share of non-manual workers in both employment and...

The paper examines evidence concerning the impact of financial liberalisation and innovation on monetary policy. The indicator value of monetary aggregates and the role of liquidity constraints in the transmission mechanism affecting aggregate demand are examined. Countries where financial...

The paper is devoted to an empirical examination of the information content in the term structure of nominal interest rates for future inflation. Tests of the ability of the term structure to forecast future changes in the inflation rate are carried out for six major OECD countries using monthly...