Knowledge of the one-month interest rate is useful in forecasting the sign, as well as the variance, of the excess return on stocks. The services of a portfolio manager who makes use of the forecasting model to shift funds between bills and stocks would be worth an annual management fee of 2...

We present a trend-based alternative to the standard first-order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine-category taxonomy of long-run...

Assumptions about international migration are an increasingly important component of the demographic projection module. Yet most official immigration projections both in the United States and abroad rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology. The...

Negotiation in violent international conflict has not often been studied using systematic large-N comparisons. This article utilizes an original dataset of international disputes and negotiation efforts occurring in the 1945-95 period to assess the character of international negotiation and to...