[eng] The new Parliament opens in a very different international context from that faced by recent governments. The « reverse oil crisis », accentuated by the fall in the exchange rate of the dollar, will simultaneously improve all four corners of the French economy's « magic square » :...

[eng] The evolution of the economic policies of the socialist government can be divided into three phases. The first, from May 1981 to the devaluation of June 1982, can be characterized as expansionist and aimed specifically at reducing unemployment. This expansionist policy was partially offset...

[eng] This article presents the evolution of the french economy, quantified by the annual OFCE model (up to 1988) according to three alternative scenarios. The upturn recently observed in OECD countries can hardly be considered a return to expansion. The growth of GDP in OECD countries and that...

[eng] As requested by the economic administrations of some African countries, the OFCE Econometric Department was led to build and finalize short and medium term forecasting models different from those currently used in the developed countries. This paper presents the model built for the...

[eng] What Prospects for French Social Security ? A. Fonteneau, A. Gubian, H. Sterdyniak, C. Verpeaux In the future, the ageing of the population, increases in health expenditures, the rise of unemployment and the necessity to encourage the birth rate will make the problems of the social...

[eng] The French Social Security : History and Forecasts A. Fonteneau, A. Gubian, H. Sterdyniak, C. Verpeaux The ratio of social security payments to GDP has expanded from 17 to 27 percent over the last twenty years. Three sub-periods can be distinguished. From 1968 to 1973, there was a rapid...

[fre] Cet article examine la « qualité » des prévisions économiques à court terme élaborées par douze organismes français sur la période 1970-1981. Les écarts prévisions-réalisations dépendent principalement des agrégats macro-économiques et de l'horizon prévisionnel...

[eng] The economic growth for 1986-1987 will widely depend on and firms reactions for the reverses oil crisis. If they are going to use income transfers to reduce their debt, the growth will remain Home — saving would substitute the external debt in order to finance same investment amount....

[fre] Les grandes lignes du scénario d'environnement international qui sous-tend cette projection sont les suivantes. Le prix du pétrole en dollar s'accroîtrait pour rejoindre son niveau d'équilibre à la fin de la décennie. La stratégie de rétablissement de la part du marché pétrolier...