We introduce learning into a Hotelling model of a non-renewable resource market. By combining learning and scarcity we add significantly to the dynamics implied by learning and substantially enhance the volatility of commodity prices. In our learning model we show how a self confirming...

Using oil prices since 1832 we consider the evidence in favour of escape dynamics in the oil industry and provide estimates of market inference regarding oil scarcity.

The combination of learning and depletion in non-renewable resource markets adds significant volatility to commodity prices. The market consists of a small number of suppliers who make depletion plans based on their perceptions of how sensitive price is to supply. Learning leads to changes in...

We examine the effect of introducing price stickiness into a stochastic growth model subject to a cash in advance constraint. As has been previously documented, the introduction of price rigidities provides a substantial source of monetary non-neutrality; leads to a strong positive correlation...

This paper examines the effect of introducing a specific type of price stickiness into a stochastic growth model subject to a cash-in-advance constraint. As in previous studies, it is found that the introduction of price rigidities provides a substantial source of monetary non-neutrality that...

Disinflationary episodes are a valuable source of information for economic agents trying to learn about the economy.  This paper is especially interested in how a policymaker can themselves learn by disinflating.  The approach differs from the existing literature, which typically focuses on...

A well-known time-inconsistency problem hinders optimal decision-making when policymakers are constrained in their pesent choices by expectations of future outcomes.  The time-inconsistency problem is caused by differences in the preferences of policymakers who exist at different points in...

What is the optimal instrument design and choice for a regulator attempting to control emissions by private agents in face of uncertainty arising from business cycles? In applying Weitzman's result [Prices vs. quantities, Review of Economic Studies, 41 (1974), 477-491] to the problem of...

This paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non-oil economic activity in oil-dependent countries. During the boom, manufacturing exports and value added increased significantly relative to non-oil dependent countries,along with wages, employment,...