As a result of the early repayment programme launched in the autumn of 2011, buying demand for several billions of euros arose on the side of domestic banks. The purchase of such amounts in the foreign exchange market would have alone contributed to a substantial weakening of the forint;...

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...

This study briefly presents the tools the Magyar Nemzeti Bank uses to estimate and interpret the yield curve, and to analyse the underlying reasons of yield changes. The first part of the study compares the yields of government securities and those of interbank and interest rate swap markets,...

In this paper we estimate yield curves from Hungarian interest rate swap and money market data. Following general practice, we experiment with several models-differing in the functional form and objective function-and chose the model which performs best according to standard evaluation criteria....

The Law on Fiscal Responsibility adopted late 2008 is a new element in Hungarian fiscal policy, although not without precedent. Under the law, the Parliament and the Government limit themselves to prevent high fiscal deficits and a further increase in public indebtedness, experienced in recent...

In this article, the average expenditure of Hungary is compared to that of the other three Visegrád countries. In Hungary, this expenditure is higher by 10 % of GDP, but one-quarter of this is attributable to higher interest expenses, and one-third to revenue factors which simultaneously...

Over the past decade, increasing public debt has become one of the most important problems for the Hungarian economy, significantly constraining the room for manoeuvre for fiscal policy and in some periods even calling into question its sustainability. As a percentage of GDP, gross public debt...

If compliance with a fiscal rule in certain periods requires procyclical fiscal policy, it means that fiscal policy does not mitigate the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, but rather may amplify them, i.e. it is unable to perform its stabilisation function. On the basis of the analysis of...

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...