As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling...

Copulas have become very popular as modelling tools in probability applications. Given a finite number of expectation constraints for functions defined on the unit square, the minimum information copula is that copula which has minimum information (Kullback–Leibler divergence) from the uniform...

Expert judgment is frequently used to assess parameter values of quantitative management science models, particularly in decision-making contexts. Experts can, however, only be expected to assess observable quantities, not abstract model parameters. This means that we need a method for...

This paper presents a competing risks reliability model for a system that releases signals each time its condition deteriorates. The released signals are used to inform opportunistic maintenance. The model provides a framework for the determination of the underlying system lifetime from...

It is shown how calibration methods for expert judgement can be used to establish consensus about the uncertainties involved in a complex project risk analysis, where no consensus was present before. A case study is presented in which a project risk analysis was carried out for a large scale...

We consider the parallel developments in the economics of agglomeration and the economics of networks. We explore the complementarities between the productivity benefits of agglomeration and those of network linkages, arguing that networks of actors dispersed over space may substitute for...