This paper introduces social learning into irreversible investment theory through parameter uncertainty, and shows that social learning could reduce parameter uncertainty to facilitate irreversible investment technology adoption. The theoretic model is tested by using household level data from...

We use Bayesian methods to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve by assuming that monetary policy is performed optimally under commitment since the mid-sixties. For this purpose, we distinguish between three subperiods, i.e. the pre-Volcker, the Volcker-Greenspan and the Greenspan...

In practice, monetary policy changes tend to produce a smooth path for interest rates while the path of policy interest rates generated by models is often considerably more variable. This paper investigates whether the inclusion of uncertainty can help reconcile the theory to the practice. It...

In a simple dynamic macroeconomic model, it is shown that uncertainty about structural parameters does not necessarily lead to more cautious monetary policy, refining the accepted wisdom concerning the effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty...

Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...

In this paper we use a simple model of the Australian economy to empirically examine the consequences of parameter uncertainty for optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses are derived for a monetary authority that targets inflation and output stability. Parameter uncertainty is...

We firstly consider an investor faced with the classical Merton problem of optimal investment in a log-Brownian asset and a fixed-interest bond, but constrained only to change portfolio (and, if relevant, consumption) choices at times which are a multiple of h. We show that the cost of this...

The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

Aslaksen et al. (1990) concluded that the petroleum wealth of Norway, and hence the permanent income from petroleum extraction, was as uncertain as the yearly oil revenues. Their conclusion was based on wealth estimates using official price projections, with no independent empirical analysis of...

Studies on the quantification of energy benefits of a green roof have so far treated its parameter values only deterministically. In reality, however, these values may scatter over different ranges due to the inherent variation of vegetation and soil properties and also because of the...