Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate...

In recent years the relationship between ÎmoneyÌ and the macroeconomy has assumed prominence in the academic literature and in Central Banks circles. Although some Central Bankers have stated that they have formally abandoned the notion of using monetary aggregates as indicators of the impact...

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In...

Consumers complain that retail prices of petroleum products increase instantly whenever prices of crude oil increase but take a long time to fall after crude oil price decreases. This apparent discrepancy attracts significant attention in the applied literature, as it might imply a welfare...

We compare the empirical performance of a capital certain monetary services index and an index that is extended to contain assets with substantial interest rate risk, such as unit trusts, within a cointegration money demand framework for the UK. Technological changes and innovations have...

Central banks continue to publish simple sum measures of the money stock and draw policy inferences from their behaviour even though it has been demonstrated conclusively that such data violate basic principles of economic and index number theory. (See, for example, Belongia (1996)). Simple sum...

This paper analyses horizontal and vertical price dynamics in the EU petroleum markets. The results indicate that the cross-country price differentials have significant impact on the local price adjustments. The uncovered patterns can be seen as the first empirical support for the...