This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.

The paper estimates McCallum and Taylor monetary policy reaction functions, and hybrids mixing instruments and targets from the two frameworks, for 20 emerging market economies. McCallum-Taylor specifications with an interest rate instrument and a nominal income gap target perform better than...

The paper estimates McCallum and Taylor monetary policy reaction functions, hybrids mixing instruments and targets from the two frameworks, and nominal feedback mechanisms for 20 emerging market economies. The choice of framework employed in analysing each country is informed by the...

The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has,...

The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has,...

This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degree...

This paper specifies and estimates a hybrid monetary policy base reaction function for the Dominican Republic (DR). The estimated reactions suggest that the Central Bank has been biased towards targeting the gap between the parallel and official exchange rates, apparently doing so in a more...

One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions and Economic Growth Dani Rodrik

This paper investigates banking system instability vis-à-vis the day-to-day interbank market and monetary policy effectiveness in the Dominican Republic. The analysis reveals a negative relationship among excess banking system reserves and the interbank interest rate, and shows that in crisis...

This paper models daily returns, volatility, and ‘news’ in the parallel foreign exchange market of a small developing economy, namely the Dominican Republic, during the period 1989-2001. The research adopts a non-linear specification that encompasses several members of the GARCH family. A...