Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time and time to maturity. This...

The Market Models of the term structure of interest rates, in which forward LIBOR or forward swap rates are modelled to be lognormal under the forward probability measure of the corresponding maturity, are extended to a multicurrency setting. If lognormal dynamics are assumed for forward LIBOR...

We document the behavior of over-the-counter currency option prices across moneyness, maturity, and calendar time on two of the most actively traded currency pairs over the past eight years. We find that the risk-neutral distribution of currency returns is relatively symmetric on average....

Purpose – Recent research indicates that the random walk hypothesis (RWH) approximately describes the behavior of major dollar exchange rates during the post-1973 float. The present analysis seeks to examine the profitability of currency futures trading rules that assume that spot exchange...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a new set of tools for policy makers at central banks. Based on the Garman-Kohlhagen formula for currency options, this research extends it with the Taylor-rule expression used for inflation targeting, thus obtaining the corresponding Call and Put options...

This is the first study that employs option pricing model to measure the position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios, which covers moment information as the proxy for crash risk. We show that high interest-rate currencies are exposed to higher position-unwinding risk than low...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of the credit risk of Eurozone member countries on the stability of the Euro. In the absence of a common euro bond, euro-area credit risk is induced though the credit default swaps of the member countries. The stability of the euro is examined...

Recently academic researchers and practitioners have use the asymptotic expansion method to examine a variety of financial issues under high-dimensional stochastic environments. This methodology is mathematically justified by Watanabe theory (Watanabe, 1987), and Malliavin calculus (Yoshida,...

Several central banks in emerging economies are concerned with excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets and would like to control the direction and speed with which the value of their currency changes. Historically, currency market interventions have consisted of using foreign exchange...

The two most intriguing anomalies in currency markets are: 1) the implied volatility smile in currency options, and 2) the forward discount bias in currency exchange rates. I show that if currency options are valued in analogy with the underlying currency and beliefs are heterogeneous, then the...