Uncertainty is present in many decisions where an action's consequences are unknown because they depend on future events. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) offers an axiomatic basis for choice, but practitioners may prefer to use simpler decision models for transparency, ease of use, or...

A simulation study examines the impact of a simplification strategy that replaces distributional attribute evaluations with their expected values and uses those expectations in an additive value model. Several alternate simplified forms and approximation approaches are investigated, with results...

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to...

This paper presents the results of an experiment investigating the effects of using different formats for representing uncertain attribute evaluations on decision making. Study participants make a series of hypothetical choices using six uncertainty formats - probability distributions, expected...

This paper considers the use of scenarios to treat uncertain attribute evaluations in the outranking methods. The scenario-based approach allows the decision maker to think deterministically about the problem by attaching causal links to a small number of potential outcomes, instead of using...

This paper proposes and evaluates a descriptive multiattribute choice model based upon the notion of acceptability developed in the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) methods. The acceptability index is simply the relative proportion of all possible preference structures that...

Behavioural research into slot machine gambling tends to focus on characteristics of the gambler or on qualitative aspects of the slot machine such as audiovisual displays and bonus features. In this paper we take a different approach by using Monte Carlo simulation to relate hypothetical slot...

This study examines the use of spatial optimization techniques for multi-site land-use allocation problems (MLUA). 'Multi-site' refers to the problem of allocating more than one land-use type in an area, which are difficult problems as they involve multiple stakeholders with conflicting goals...

The exact expressions for the convolutions of gamma distributions with different scale parameters is quite complicated. The approximation by means of another gamma distribution is shown to be remarkably accurate for wide ranges of the parameter values, especially if more than two random...

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various...