We apply the principles of the ``Wisdom of Crowds (WoC)'' to improve the calibration of interval estimates. Previous research has documented the significant impact of the WoC on the accuracy of point estimates but only a few studies have examined its effectiveness in aggregating interval...

Ellsberg?s famous paradox [1961] focused attention on the importance of the precision of the probabilities underlying risky choice. Following his seminal work numerous studies have demonstrated that people are generally averse to imprecisely specified (vague) probabilities. In many important...

This paper focuses on decisions under ambiguity. Participants in a laboratory experiment made decisions in three different settings: (a) individually, (b) individually after discussing the decisions with two others, and (c) in groups of three. We show that groups are more likely to make...

A vast literature shows that individuals frequently violate normative principles in reasoning. In evaluating the relevance of these findings for psychology, economics, and related disciplines, it is natural to ask whether reasoning errors reflect random aberrations or systematic biases. One...

A vast literature shows that individuals frequently fail to identify the normative solutions in logical reasoning tasks. Much attention has been devoted to the study of these deviations at the individual level; less eVort was exerted to investigate whether institutional settings might facilitate...