In this paper, we illustrate the application of Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty. The focus is on a simple projection model with the historical data representing population change in England and Wales from 1841 to 2007. The Bayesian forecasts to...

International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition, and quality. In this article, we propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various...

International migration statistics vary considerably from one country to another in terms of measurement, quality and coverage. Furthermore, immigration tend to be captured more accurately than emigration. In this paper, we first describe the need to augment reported flows of international...

The aims of this paper are to present the background and specification of the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model. Currently, international migration data are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. This creates problems when attempting...

A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and the receiving countries. For the...

The aim of the paper is to present Bayesian forecasts of immigration for seven European countries to 2025, based on quantitative data and qualitative knowledge elicited from country-specific migration experts in a two-round Delphi survey. In line with earlier results, most of the immigration...

In this paper we present an agent-based model of a human population, designed to illustrate the potential synergies between demography and agent-based social simulation. In the modelling process, we take advantage of the perspectives of both disciplines: demography being more focused on matching...