This article derives underlying asset risk-neutral probability distributions of European options on the S&P 500 index. Nonparametric methods are used to choose probabilities that minimize an objective function subject to requiring that the probabilities are consistent with observed option and...

This paper summarizes a program of research we have conducted over the past four years. So far, it has produced two published articles, one forthcoming paper, one working paper currently under review at a journal, and three working papers in progress. The research concerns the recovery of...

This paper presents the logic behind the increasingly neglected proposition that prices set in developed financial markets are determined as if all investors are rational. It contends that realistically, market rationality needs to be defined so as to allow investors to be uncertain about the...

The conclusions of Hirshleifer (1971) concerning the private and social value of information in a pure exchange economy are examined. We agree that in the impersonal and competitive market of Hirshleifer, the production of new private information has private value and the production of new...