In this article, we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting-based classification technique, and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative...

Many central banks have abandoned credit ceilings in favor of monetary control frameworks based on indirect instruments. In the long run, ceilings limited competition, hampered the development of a money market, and caused disintermediation. Despite the many distortions associated with the use...

A healthy and dynamic financial sector is essential to achieving high and sustainable economic growth in the Maghreb region-Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia. Financial integration within the Maghreb region will help deepen financial markets, increase their efficiency, and enhance...

The economies of the Arab states of the Gulf have gone through considerable changes in the last decade, spurred by high oil prices and ambitious diversification plans. Large-scale immigration provided the labour force while capital inflows and financial development leveraged oil wealth to...

The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the...

We investigate the extent of regional financial integration in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Interest rate data show that convergence exists and that interest rate differentials are relatively short-lived—especially relative to other unified currency area and comparable...

At what level should inflation be a concern? From a growth perspective, high and rising levels of inflation as in 2006–2008 raise concerns that inflation, if uncontained, could undermine growth. On the other hand, higher levels of inflation could create more space for using monetary policy to...

At what level should inflation be a concern? From a growth perspective, high and rising levels of inflation as in 2006–2008 raise concerns that inflation, if uncontained, could undermine growth. On the other hand, higher levels of inflation could create more space for using monetary policy to...

According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is...