We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the natural yield curve (NYC) -- the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to...

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach i Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the the natural yield curve (NYC) - the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to...

Over the last few years significant spreads arose for both public and private debt between euro area countries. We check whether these spreads could be made to work towards the goal of providing more stability to the euro area. In particular we focus on reducing the imbalances that arose between...

We estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward-looking. We find that all three banks are to some extent forward-looking, albeit to a varying degree. In general, the horizons...

The experience of the last decades revealed the weakening of the relationship between inflation and a domestic output gap in many small open economies. However we may expect that there is still a substantial share of inflation basket which is sensitive to domestic economic activity, in...

Since the creation of the euro area significant interest rate spreads have arisen between euro area countries, both for public and private debt. We check whether these spreads could be made to work towards the goal of providing more stability to the euro area. In particular we focus on reducing...

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the the natural yield curve (NYC) - the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt...

We estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks (Bank of England, National Bank of Poland and Swiss National Bank) in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward looking in their monetary policy decisions. We find that all...

In the paper we have investigated to what extent the behaviour of CPI inflation depends on changes in domestic economic activity in Polish economy which is usually described as a small open economy. We conducted a disaggregated analysis using price indices at the COICOP 4-digit level. We...

Since its creation the euro area suffered from imbalances between its core and peripheral members. This paper checks whether macroprudential policy applied to the peripheral countries could contribute to providing more macroeconomic stability in this region. To this end we build a two-economy...