The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

This paper analyses the role of credit rating agencies in sovereign debt crises. Using a panel of 53 emerging and developing countries with annual data going back to 1977, the paper shows that credit ratings are not very good predictors of debt distress events once tested against a simple...

As part of the International Banking Research Network, the Banque de France contribution to the research project on liquidity risk transmission concentrates on the “outward”' transmission of shocks affecting French banking groups. Using a rich dataset on their international positions, we...

La crise financière a durablement transformé l’environnement économique mondial et stimulé de nombreuses études sur ses causes et ses canaux de transmission, qui ont été présentées lors d’une conférence organisée par la Banque de France, PSE et le FMI.

This paper uncovers the response pattern to global shocks of euro area countries' real effective exchange rates before and after the start of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a largely open ended question when the euro was created. We apply to that end a newly developed methodology based on...

Les 8 et 9 décembre 2011, une conférence sur les politiques budgétaire et monétaire à la suite de la crise financière a été organisée à Paris par la Banque de France en collaboration avec la Paris School of Economics, le Euro Area Business Cycle Network et The Economic Journal. Elle a...

The financial crisis lastingly transformed the global economic environment and raised much debate as to its causes and transmission channels. This conference, organised by the Banque de France, PSE and the IMF, provided an arena to present and discuss these issues.

This paper estimates export and import price equations for 40 countries – including 19 emerging market economies (EMEs) – and aims to understand heterogeneity across countries in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import and to export prices. Results indicate that (i) the...

La Banque de France, la revue American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics, l’École d’économie de Paris ainsi que les centres de recherche ECARES et CEPR ont organisé une conférence sur les enseignement macroéconomiques à tirer de la crise financière. Crise de la dette souveraine,...

In this paper we take a systematic look at recent trends in global protectionism and at the potential implications of a protectionist backlash for economic growth, using results from the recent economic literature and new model simulations. We find that there has so far been a moderate increase...