The literature has not unambiguously established that a positive alpha, as traditionally measured, means that an investor would want to buy a fund. However, when alpha is defined using the client's marginal utility function, a client faced with a positive alpha would generally want to buy. When...

type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>The literature has not established that a positive alpha, as traditionally measured, means that an investor would want to buy a fund. When alpha is defined using the client's utility function, a positive alpha generally means the client would want to buy. When markets are...</p>

This paper studies the ability of long-run risk models to explain out-of-sample asset returns during 1931–2009. The long-run risk models perform relatively well on the momentum effect.

We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency when there is conditioning information in the form of a set of lagged instruments. A model of expected returns identifies a portfolio that should be minimum variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our...

This paper makes indirect inference about the time-variation in expected stock returns by comparing unconditional sample variances to estimates of expected conditional variances. The evidence reveals more predictability as more information is used, and no evidence that predictability has...