Operational risk is hard to quantify, for the presence of heavy tailed loss distributions. Extreme value distributions, used in this context, are very sensitive to the data, and this is a problem in the presence of rare loss data. Self risk assessment questionnaires, if properly modelled, may...

In this paper we propose a novel approach to measure risks, when the data available are expressed in an ordinal scale. As a result we obtain a new index of risk bounded between 0 and 1, that leads to a risk ordering that is consistent with a stochastic dominance approach. The proposed measure,...

Model uncertainty remains a challenge to researchers in different applications. When many competing models are available for estimation, and without enough guidance from theory, model averaging represents an alternative to model selection. Despite model averaging approaches have been present in...

Considering the attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we propose a set of Bayesian and classical longitudinal models to predict SME default probability, taking unobservable firm and business sector heterogeneities as well as analysts’ recommendations into account. We...

According to the last proposals by the Basel Committee, banks are allowed to use statistical approaches for the computation of their capital charge covering financial risks such as credit risk, market risk and operational risk. It is widely recognized that internal loss data alone do not suffice...

The ROC curve is one of the most common statistical tools useful to assess classifier performance. The selection of the best classifier when ROC curves intersect is quite challenging. A novel approach for model comparisons when ROC curves show intersections is proposed. In particular, the...

Credit risk concentration is one of the leading topics in modern finance, as the bank regulation has made increasing use of external and internal credit ratings. Concentration risk in credit portfolios comes into being through an uneven distribution of bank loans to individual borrowers...

This paper proposes a novel methodology for integrating nan- cial risk and operational risk. In order to demonstrate the approach, we use real data from a telecommunication company providing services to enterprises in dierent business lines and geographical locations. For each enterprise, we...