Emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly countercyclical trade balance. An equilibrium business cycle model in which agents learn to distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of total factor productivity...

We build an equilibrium business cycle model in which agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks and learn about those components using the Kalman filter. Calibrated to Mexico, the model predicts a higher variability of consumption relative...

The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...

Emerging economies are characterized by higher variability of consumption and real wages relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A small open economy model with search‐matching frictions and countercyclical interest rate shocks can account for these regularities....

This paper explores the role of bank balance sheets, sovereign default risk, and capital adequacy requirements in amplifying aggregate fluctuations. The paper, first, proposes a unified model of defaultable sovereign debt and bank balance sheets to capture regularities on bank credit to firms,...

observed in the data.

This paper explores how banks' balance sheets and sovereign risk affect macroeconomic fluctuations jointly. The heightened sovereign risk and a potential default constrain the banks' ability to extend credit to firms. This happens through the capital requirement that limits the size of the bank...

Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical...

The interaction between credit frictions, financial innovation, and a switch from optimistic to pessimistic beliefs played a central role in the 2008 financial crisis. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework in which this interaction drives the financial amplification...