This paper uses a structural vector-autoregressive framework to assess the relative importance of fundamental and speculative components of the Thai Baht with particular emphasis on the dramatic collapse of the currency in 1997. Two alternative models were used for this purpose, loosely based on...

Emerging markets have been the fastest growing share markets in the past decade. There are 58 emerging markets. Yet, little is know about their efficiency compared to the vast body of results on efficiency of the developed markets. Little is also known of the way in de-regulation of emerging...

The large US-China trade imbalance is a common cause for concern and regularly blamed on the undervaluation of the RMB. We estimate a simple model of the trade balance and simulate the long-run effects on the trade balance of RMB revaluations in the range of 10-50%. We find that improvements in...

Regional unemployment disparities are widely observed, appear to persist through time and are often a reason for concern on the part of both regional and national governments. This paper constructs a small two-region general-equilibrium model and uses it to assess the effectiveness of...

We model the effects of changes in a federal government’s inter-regional transfers within the context of a CGE model of a federal system in which regional governments act to maximise the welfare of the residents of their region subject to the effects of their decision on regional economic...

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform in that it is fragmented in its coverage and significantly under-funded. Attempts to improve the coverage will likely exacerbate the financial strains. Thus it is urgent to improve the financial sustainability of the system and one...

China is under considerable pressure to reduce its CO2 emissions and has given a public commitment to substantial cuts by 2020. Policy-makers are acutely aware of the possible adverse economic consequences of such cuts and an important part of this issue is the regional dimension – will policy...