This Paper highlights a problem in using the first-differenced GMM panel data estimator to estimate cross-country growth regressions. When the time series are persistent, the first-differenced GMM estimator can be poorly behaved, since lagged levels of the series provide only weak instruments...

The idea that income differences between rich and poor nations arise through multiple equilibria or ‘poverty traps’ is as intuitive as it is difficult to verify. In this Paper, we explore the empirical relevance of such models. We calibrate a simple two-sector model for 127 countries, and...

This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Structural change matters because, if the marginal product of labour varies across sectors, changes in the structure of employment can raise...

Models of open economies with nominal rigidities are often thought to predict a correlation between openness to trade and the slope of the output-inflation trade-off, or Phillips curve. Using a variety of measures of the trade-off and a standard measure of openness, this paper argues that the...

The idea that income differences between rich and poor nations arise through multiple equilibria or 'poverty traps' is as intuitive as it is difficult to verify. In this paper, we explore the empirical relevance of such models. We calibrate a simple two sector model for 127 countries, and use...

We examine whether structural transformation leads to a Kuznets curve. We present a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous workers, occupational self-selection and selective migration, and calibrate the model to survey data for Malawi. We show that structural transformation raises...

For many developing countries, international transfers are now a significant source of income. These transfers include official development aid, private charitable donations, and personal remittances. This paper uses dynamic one-sector and multi-sector models to isolate conditions under which...

Since the early 1990s, there has been a renaissance in the study of regional growth, spurred by new models, methods and data. We survey a range of modelling traditions, and some formal approaches to the ’hard problem’ of regional economics, namely the joint consideration of agglomeration and...

We introduce a new `supply-push' instrument for foreign aid, to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors. We use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios, and especially the ratios of consumption, investment,...