Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link — the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link -- the consumption/real exchange-rate anomaly or...

Dynamic Euler equations restrict multivariate forecasts. Thus a range of links between macroeconomic variables can be studied by seeing whether they hold within the multivariate predictions of professional forecasters. We illustrate this novel way of testing theory by studying the links between...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciation across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

We present numerical estimates of the effect on the dollar/sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s of anticipations of the return to the gold standard at pre-war parity in the U.K. These measures are calculated using a weak version of the monetary model of the exchange rate but are consistent...

A test of a dynamic, macroeconomic model with free parameters is provided by comparing its features, such as moments, with those of historical data. We provide a method for studying the distribution of the sample moment under the null hypothesis that the model is true. We calculate the size of...

We examine hypotheses about the relationship between provisional estimates and final values of M1, M2, and M3 and their growth rates in Canada, using monthly data and multiple revisions. Preliminary values cannot be viewed as final values plus an error (revision) uncorrelated with these but they...