The calibration of probability or confidence judgments concerns the association between the judgments and some estimate of the correct probabilities of events. Researchers rely on estimates using relative frequencies computed by aggregating data over observations. We show that this approach...

Ellsberg?s famous paradox [1961] focused attention on the importance of the precision of the probabilities underlying risky choice. Following his seminal work numerous studies have demonstrated that people are generally averse to imprecisely specified (vague) probabilities. In many important...

Economists have proposed several plausible explanations for observed price transmission asymmetries in commodity markets. Unfortunately, the econometric methods commonly used in such studies cannot empirically distinguish pricing behavior under the competing theories. We argue that the theories...

In this article, we develop land use models to study the impact of changes in decision variables on soil erosion or other environmental outcomes. From an underlying behavioral model, we use maximum entropy to recover a parametric model of county-level land use shares as a function of decision...

Economists have proposed several plausible explanations for observed price transmission asymmetries in commodity markets. Unfortunately, the econometric methods commonly used in such studies cannot empirically distinguish pricing behavior under the competing theories. We argue that the theories...