The empirical validity of $b;PPP$eb; as a long-run constraint between India and the US is examined in the preesence of foreign exchange black markets. In a triariate model, the official exchange rate is found to be coinergrated with both the price ratio and the black market exchange rate. Both the...

In evaluating the multiperiod forecasts of the corporate bond yield spread from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), it is shown that the consensus forecasts are generally unbiased and consistently outperform the comparable ARIMA forecasts and are thus, at least, weakly rational.

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999-2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market...

This study asks whether greater foreign investment reduces real exchange rate volatility in eight emerging Asian countries. As a noteworthy aspect, we utilize detailed measures of foreign investment, including foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio equity, and foreign debt. Our findings...

This study evaluates the accuracy of the private-sector forecasts of inflation and growth in industrial production collected by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). In addition to examining directional accuracy, we utilize as benchmarks both naïve and univariate autoregressive moving-average...

We utilize a time-series model to examine the interrelationship between marriage and divorce and their connections with macroeconomic conditions for the period 1960 to 2008. Our findings suggest that marriage and divorce are pro-cyclical, although macroeconomic conditions affect divorce only...

Utilizing recent techniques with comparable private forecasts as benchmarks, we test the rationality of the Federal Reserve forecasts of growth under flexible loss. Our findings for 1984–2006 indicate that these forecasts are rational (efficient) and directionally accurate under symmetric loss...

In investigating the causal relation between government revenue and spending, our empirical results support the tax-and-spend hypothesis for Egypt and the fiscal synchronization hypothesis for Jordan. Breaking away from these historical trends is essential for both countries to eliminate the...

Accurate forecasts of the 30‐year home mortgage rate (HMR) are important to both US housing market participants and policymakers. This study compares the consensus forecasts of the HMR from the Blue Chip panel of experts with two benchmarks: the random walk forecasts (which are basically the...

In this study, we ask whether US consumers' inflation expectations provide useful information for accurately predicting the direction of change in energy prices. As such, we set up a forecasting model to generate the one-, two- and three-quarter-ahead random walk forecasts of crude oil, gasoline...