We estimate rural household income uncertainties and welfare changes due to commodity price and production variability in Ghana and Peru under different scenarios for international and domestic market shocks. Uncertainties significantly affect the variability of household income, especially for...

A number of tests and dating algorithms have been developed and used to identify rapid increases in prices followed by a collapse, also known as explosive bubbles (Phillips, Wu and Yu, 2011; Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2012; Gilbert, 2009; Gutierrez, forthcoming). Previous analysis on agriculture commodities by...

The prices of many staple food commodities have increased substantially over the past year. As a result, many developing countries are facing larger food import bills. The cereal import bill of the world’s poorest countries is forecast to rise by 56 percent in 2007/08, following an already...

The extent to which commodity price volatility affects the income of producing households and their vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity depends on household diversification patterns and the degree of their exposure to markets. This article focuses on estimating agricultural income...

Generally the vast majority of poor households in developing countries live in the rural areas and heavily rely on agriculture and agricultural assets for their livelihoods. Vietnam gives evidence of the same patterns whereby 90 percent of the poor live in rural areas and more than 80 percent of...

The changes recently introduced in the EU Common Market Organization for sugar will interact with preferential imports from developing countries and least developed countries that enjoy preferential treatment for exports to the EU, as well as by trade and adjustment costs. This paper focuses on...

Preferential trade agreements are a central issue in the multilateral trade liberalization process. The extent to which such agreements are effective in improving market access for developing and developed countries is important because trade liberalization results in eroding their value to the...